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Stock Market Rating Service

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The DeMarche Stock Market Rating Service summarizes the short-term and long-term outlook for the stock market.

TIME FRAME
RATING1
TODAY'S COMMENTARY*
Short-Term2
Below Average
 The market is working downward within our trading range of 10,200-10,5003. Touching 10,2203 recently is just another step, and we still expect the market to drop to 98003 in the next month or two.
Long-Term4
Below Average
We continue to expect a low growth/slow growth economy; not the high rate of growth to drive a bull market from these stock price levels. A test of 9800 is probable.

Past Commentary

(1) Since 1945, the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index), has returned about 1.0 percent per month, slightly more than 12.0 percent per year. We use the distribution of those returns (some months better, some months worse) as a broad indicator for our Ratings Service target. "Average" is intended to target a range between 3.0 percent and (1.0) percent per month. An "Above Average" or "Below Average" month would add or subtract about 2.0 percent, or up to 5.0 percent, or down as much as (3.0) percent. Greater return ratings or lesser return ratings, labeled as "Very Good" or "Poor", would exceed those limits; i.e., greater than 5.0 percent or below (3.0) percent.

(2) Next month or two

(3) DJIA

(4) Next year or two

*Commentary posted October 10, 2005 and considered current until next posting.

 

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